How the “how long will my money last” calculator works
This calculator models a simple drawdown scenario: you have a
lump sum invested, it earns a steady rate of return, and you withdraw the same
amount on a regular schedule until the money is gone.
Each period the calculator applies this sequence:
- Start from the current balance.
- Add investment return for the period.
- Subtract your fixed withdrawal.
- Repeat until the balance reaches zero.
Mathematically, this is similar to a loan being paid down in reverse. Instead
of making payments to a lender, you are “paying yourself” from your own
portfolio.
Approximate formula (level withdrawals with constant return)
When your withdrawal amount is fixed and the return rate is constant, the
approximate number of withdrawals n needed to deplete a balance
P with periodic return r and withdrawal
W is based on:
Balance after n withdrawals =
P × (1 + r)n − W × ((1 + r)n − 1) / r
Setting this balance to zero and solving for n gives the depletion
time. In practice, the calculator uses a step-by-step simulation to handle edge
cases like zero or negative returns and to align with whole withdrawals.
Example: living off a portfolio in early retirement
Imagine you have $500,000 invested, expect an average
5% annual return, and plan to withdraw $2,500 per
month.
- Starting balance = 500,000
- Withdrawal = 2,500 monthly
- Annual return = 5% (about 0.4167% per month)
Plugging these figures into the calculator might show that your money could
last around 25–30 years, with a significant share of your
spending funded by investment growth rather than just running down principal.
Small changes can have a large impact. Increasing withdrawals, lowering the
return assumption, or starting with a smaller balance will all shorten the
projected lifespan of your money.
When the calculator says your money may never run out
If your withdrawal amount is low relative to your portfolio and expected
return, the calculator may report that your balance appears sustainable. In
simple terms, your investment return each period is larger than your
withdrawal, so the pot grows over time instead of shrinking.
This is the idea behind safe withdrawal rules in retirement planning. However,
in the real world, market returns are volatile and not guaranteed, so it’s wise
to be conservative and review your plan regularly.
Key assumptions and limitations
-
Constant return. The model assumes a smooth average return
each period, not the ups and downs of actual markets.
-
Fixed withdrawals. Your withdrawal amount is assumed to stay
the same in nominal terms and does not adjust for inflation in this version.
-
No extra deposits. The calculator does not account for
additional contributions or one-off top-ups.
-
No taxes or fees. Any taxes or investment fees are assumed
to be already baked into your chosen return rate.
Practical ways to use this calculator
-
Retirement income planning. See whether your desired
lifestyle is likely to be supported by your savings and for how long.
-
Career break or sabbatical. Estimate how long you can go
without a paycheck while drawing down savings.
-
Bridge to a pension or social benefit. Plan how far your
investments can carry you until another income source kicks in.
-
Spending down windfalls. Model a safe way to use an
inheritance, bonus or business sale proceeds over time.
Frequently asked questions
Does this show an exact depletion date?
No. It provides an estimate based on constant returns and fixed withdrawals.
Real-world investment performance will vary, so you should treat the result as
a planning guide rather than a guarantee.
Can I enter a negative return rate?
Yes. A negative rate simply accelerates how quickly the pot runs out, which
can be useful to stress-test your plan for bad market conditions.
What if I plan to increase withdrawals with inflation?
This version does not model inflation-linked withdrawals. One way to approximate
it is to reduce your assumed return by your inflation expectation, and treat
the withdrawal amount as a “today’s money” value.
How do I use this with a safe withdrawal rule?
You can plug in a withdrawal equal to a chosen percentage of your starting
balance (for example, 4% per year) and then see roughly how long the money
might last under your return assumption.